Newsletter 23 – January 2021

5G in 2021

As many operators have embraced 5G network roll-outs, 5G in 2021 will hit mainstream with wider roll-outs in existing markets. 2021 will bring improvements in 5G networks. The 2021 outlook depends on the timing of the economic recovery when the pandemic will be weakening.

• 5G is now launched in all world regions. 2021 will see additional 5G commercial launches in less-advanced markets.
• In 2021, Dynamic Spectrum Sharing, a feature of 3GPP release 15, is expected to facilitate the transition to an SA architecture. DSS makes it possible to continue serving 4G users while dynamically allocating a portion of the spectrum to 5G, depending on the number of users. It is a key functionality for players lacking spectrum in lower frequencies.
• Virtualised networks will rise than to OpenRAN technologies. Some operators, especially in Asia (China, South Korea, Japan), are well on their way to the virtualisation and cloudification of their RAN, most have only just begun this transformation (still at the trial stage). The radio network is evolving from a D-RAN (Distributed RAN) to a more centralised C-RAN (4G), and then to a virtualised-RAN (vRAN) with flexible and dynamic distribution of radio resources. With 5G, virtualisation will enable disaggregation of the RAN and give operators the ability to combine software and hardware platforms from different suppliers.
• In 2021, preliminary mmwave 5G networks will come live. Very high frequencies have a tremendous impact on a network’s architecture and on operators’ rollout strategy.
• Deployment conditions are expected to revive the appeal of infrastructure sharing.
• Co-construction will be another option to speed up coverage and deployments nationwide.
• 2021 is expected to see true 5G deployments with 5G private networks to be launched across many vertical markets and across many countries.
• With the emerging SA architecture, and of advanced services with varying QoS supported by network slicing, 5G monetisation will closely be observed.
• Geopolitical battles have just started over 6G in 5G advanced mobile markets.

Further successful steps in European policy

• Small area wireless access points – On 30 June 2020, the Commission has adopted the Implementing Regulation on small-area wireless access points, or small antennas, which are crucial for the timely deployment of 5G networks that are delivering high-capacity and increased coverage as well as advanced connection speeds. The Regulation specifies the physical and technical characteristics of small cells for 5G networks. It aims to help simplify and accelerate 5G network installations, which should be facilitated through a permit-exempt deployment regime, while ensuring that national authorities keep oversight.

• 5G Open RAN – On 24 July 2020, the European Commission launched an independant study on 5G supply markets and Open RAN. It will analyse global 5G supply market trends and set out possible options for the Commission to facilitate the development of a diverse and sustainable 5G ecosystem in the EU. The study will serve as input for the Commission to support the implementation of the 5G cybersecurity toolbox adopted last January. It is complementary to the mitigation measures taken by Member States as outlined in the NIS report on the state of its implementation published on 24 July.

• The EU Commission has also worked on Security Issues. EU Member States, with the support of the European Commission and ENISA, the EU Agency for Cybersecurity, published a report on the progress made in implementing the joint EU toolbox of mitigating measures in July. Building on the momentum, ENISA has published a study i on the “Threat landscape for 5G networks” as well as contributed to the “EU 5G Toolbox” in October. Key measures and recommendations for creating and running secure 5G networks are explained. The Progress Report was published in July 2020. Most Member States have made further progress in implementing the Toolbox measures at national level since this Progress report was published. A very large majority indicated clear plans and timelines for the roll-out of the main Toolbox measures. Overall, nearly all Member States estimated that they would complete the ongoing implementation process by mid-2021. On 27 November 2020, Member States expressed support for the preparation of a candidate certification scheme related to 5G components and suppliers’ processes. The Commission is now preparing a request for ENISA to start developing a candidate certification scheme in this area, under the Cybersecurity Act. Next steps include completing implementation of the main Toolbox measures by the second quarter of 2021 and ensuring that identified risks have been mitigated adequately and in a coordinated way and with a view to minimise the exposure to high risk suppliers and to avoid dependency on these suppliers.

• Coverage is also a key topic for 5G in Europe. Following the Commission’s Recommendation on developing a Connectivity Toolbox, published in September, the Member States shared individual input and gathered the most efficient measures for reaching the two aims, by identifying main trends and providing examples of the reported best practices from national experience.  The timely availability of faster, secure, and reliable network connections will support Europe’s recovery; citizens will be able to enjoy better digital platforms for education and public services, while business will have better tools to engage with customers. In the Connectivity Toolbox Recommendation, the Commission urged Member States to identify and share best practices by 20 December 2020, as a first stage. The Commission has set up a Special Group for Member States to cooperate with one another and the Commission and to develop by 30 March 2021 the Toolbox of best practices for an efficient and timely rollout of very high capacity networks, including fibre and 5G, across the EU.

• 5G joint Investment and Deployment – At the same time, the Commission published another Recommendation calling Member States to boost investment in very high-capacity broadband connectivity infrastructure, including 5G, which is the most fundamental block of the digital transformation and an essential pillar of the recovery. The timely deployment of 5G networks will offer significant economic opportunities for the years to come, as a crucial asset for European competitiveness, sustainability and a major enabler for future digital services.

• 5G Investment Agenda for CCAM –  On 1 October 2020, the 5G Strategic Deployment Agenda for Connected and Automated Mobility (Click to open document) was shared by the Associations as stakeholders ACEA, CEDR, GSMA & 5GAA. The white paper was issued as a result of a process facilitated by the 5G PPP Automotive Working Group and the European Commission DG CNECT. This agenda is the result of stakeholder engagement under the joint initiative between the European Commission and European ICT industry (the 5G Public-Private Partnership, or the 5G PPP). It builds upon the initial draft version of the agenda that had been issued in October 2019. The stakeholders involved in this cooperation include representatives from the relevant European industry associations who provide their formal support in the document, as well as the experts of the three 5G corridor trial projects under Horizon 2020.

• Cutting the cost of network roll-out: Ensuring that advanced and more sustainable electronic communications networks are deployed in an efficient, faster and less costly manner, is critical for working towards reaching the 2025 Gigabit objectives. The best practices reported by the Member States in this area relate to a variety of aspects from streamlining administrative procedures for granting network installation permits, including permit exemptions or replacement of permit by notification systems, establishing the Single Information Point (SIP) as a single entry point for submitting applications for permits and/or through electronic means, enhancing the availability of information relevant for sharing existing physical infrastructure (e.g. making information available via a single data portal or making available georeferenced information through different means), expanding access rights to physical infrastructures, and reducing the environmental footprint of electronic communication networks (e.g. the development of an environmental strategy for the ICT sector).

• Access to 5G spectrum: The timely rollout of 5G is the fast track to innovation. 5G connectivity will bring major opportunities to enhance education and entertainment, and to transform business and industry. It will launch revolutions across sectors, in medical procedures, patient care, factory safety and precision, automated transport, and more. Timely and efficient access to radio spectrum is a major pre-condition for deploying 5G wireless networks and the take-up of innovative 5G services. The reported best practices in assigning 5G radio spectrum focus on:
• • Financial incentives as part of the spectrum auction process, to ensure investment-friendly conditions (e.g. setting spectrum prices according to international benchmarks or payment of auction fees in longer-term instalments)
  • Coherent spectrum assignment in support of industrial 5G use cases with a cross-border dimension (e.g. frequency coordination and cooperation agreements to ensure seamless cross-border services for emergency services, road and rail transport)
  • Public transparency on the subject of Electromagnetic fields (EMF) with 5G rollout

As a next milestone, the Member States should agree on the final best practices by 30 March 2021. The EU Toolbox of best practices will help Member States reach the Gigabit connectivity goals by 2025 and support the objectives of the European Electronic Communications Code, which will apply in Member States from 21 December 2020. Country outputs can be downloaded here on the EU website here.

In the meantime, the European Commission released its new Radio Spectrum Policy Programme (RSPP) targeting the 2025/2030 time horizon in March 2020.  The first RSPP was approved back eight year ago in March 2012. The RSPP covers all types of radio spectrum use that affect the internal market, and sets general regulatory principles, policy objectives and priorities. The programme aims to enhance the efficiency and flexibility of spectrum use, as well as preserving and promoting competition. Five main pillars for this new RSPP are under development within teh RSPG (Radio Spectrum Policy Group): strategic spectrum issues, spectrum supporting EU policies, spectrum governance, external relations and other strategic topics such as Climate Change, EMF, pandemic recovery, media policy.

5G status in Europe: 26 5G countries

In the last weeks, 5G has been lighted up in Estonia (Telia), France (Bouygues Telecom, Free Mobile, Orange, SFR), Greece (Cosmote, WindHellas), Denmark (3), Italy (Illiad) and Luxembourg (Orange, Post, Tango).

Three EU countries have assigned spectrum in all 5G pioneer bands:

• The 700 MHz band has been assigned in fourteen Member States: Austria (September 2020), Czech Republic (November 2020), Cyprus (December 2020), Denmark (March 2019), France (November 2015), Finland (November 2016), Germany (June 2015), Greece (December 2020), Hungary (March 2020), Italy (October 2018), Luxembourg (2020), Netherlands (July 2020), Slovakia (November 2020) and Sweden (December 2018).
• Spectrum within 3.4-3.8 GHz frequency band has already been assigned in accordance with 5G technical conditions in 17 countries (EU-27 countries and the UK): Austria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
• Spectrum within 26 GHz frequencies has already been assigned in Italy (October 2018), Finland (June 2020) and Greece (December 2020). In the UK and Germany, local licences are available on demand subject to coordination.

Adoption is still low but is expected to increase as Apple unveiled its first 5G-capable device Fall 2020.

5G status in Asia: massive adoption and deployment

Australia assigned 26/28 GHz spectrum in December 2020. Additional 26 GHz spectrum will be for sale in April 2021.

In 2020, 5G succeeded in making a massive entrance in Asian advanced mobile markets. 5G adoption in China continues to grow at an unprecedented pace. The 200 million 5G subscribers mark has been reached in China as at end October 2020.  In South Korea, 10.9 million 5G subscribers were registered as at end November 2020. NTT DoCoMo targets 2.5 million 5G subscribers as at end March 2021. If China is way ahead, Chinese reported data provides overstated figures. In fact, national players report “5G-fulpackage subscribers”. Not every 5G package subscribers uses a 5G capable-device, meaning that every “5G package subscriber” cannot be counted as 5G subscribers having access to a 5G network. What is more, some players propose 5G plans at a lower price than a 4G one, pushing aggressively for migration. The portion of 5G plan holders using to a 4G network is difficult to assess.

On the deployment side, Chinese figures appear overstated too. When a base station is using for example three frequency bands in China, Chinese players report three “logical sites” while Western players and regulators only report one “physical” site. This leads to overstated figures by a factor of maybe 3.

5G status in North America

Players are now focusing network deployment. All major US cities enjoyed 5G services even partially as at end 2020. Coverage is still patchy but will increase slightly with players using DSS and low frequencies. Speeds delivered over 5G are higher compared to 4G with no details on how faster they are. AT&T advertises “improved” speeds while Verizon mentioned “faster” speeds for 5G without any backing figures disclosed.

US mobile players have also started migrating to 5G standalone.